iPhone 5 Release Date Predictions

Not patient to hold the iPhone 5 ? When is the iPhone 5 release date ?

As the cadre of would-be iPhone 5 buyers turned to Steve Jobs for answers on its release date, he simply shrugged and talked about how great its software features are going to be once it shows up.

His hype-fest merely served to ratchet up expectations and thus excitement for the next generation iPhone 5 while failing to give any real hint as to when it’s coming. As such, the question we get asked most often, “When is the iPhone 5 release date?”, is being asked even more frequently than when the week began.

The answer: we don’t know. And neither does anyone else outside of Apple’s innermost posse. But here are five scenarios for its release, along with the realistic odds of each and the corresponding impact.

iPhone 5 Release Date :Very soon.

The theory: Apple didn’t unveil the iPhone 5 this week because it wanted iOS 5 and the iCloud to get all the attention. Apple will hold a press conference next week and announce the iPhone 5 on its own. The reality: Not bloody likely. Why would Apple do something so strange?

iPhone 5 Release Date : August.

The theory: iOS 5 needs beta testing and developer lead time, and Apple doesn’t want to roll out the iPhone 5 until iOS 5 is ready. Announcing the iPhone 5 this week would have hurt iPhone 4 and 3GS sales in the mean time, so it decided to hold off. The reality: Sounds reasonable…

iPhone 5 Release Date : September.

The theory: see the above scenario, except Apple decides to use its traditional early September iPress Conference to launch the iPhone 5. The reality: Feels like the most likely scenario.

iPhone 5 Release Date : Just before the holidays.

The theory: Something about the iPhone 5 and/or iOS 5 is running late, and we mean late. But Apple is determined to get it to market before the holidays, so it’ll surface sometime not too long before November’s Black Friday shopping season launch. The reality: You’re getting colder. If Apple really were going to need to leave the iPhone 5 hanging for that long, it likely would have done some sort of interstitial model in the mean time. But such a model would have been unleashed at WWDC, and it wasn’t…

iPhone 5 Release Date : Doomsday 2012.

The theory: Apple decides to leave the iPhone 4 as the current model for more than a year and a half, unleashing the iPhone 5 in February of 2012 or so. The reality: aside from fouling up the iPad 3 launch, waiting this long for the iPhone 5 would be too poor of an idea for Apple to even be considering, particularly in light of the fact that it just unveiled iOS 5 which will apparently be ready for public release within months.

Do you really see a scenario in which Apple either A) releases iOS 5 this year for the iPhone 4 but with no iPhone 5 in tow, or B) has unveiled iOS 5 now but with no intention to release it until the iPhone 5 is ready next year? Either scenario evokes the phrase “epic fail.” These are both nonsensical, which is why we expect to see the iPhone 5 this year. And because Apple almost never releases major new hardware any later in the year than early September, we’re betting on that scenario above.